What’s new: Home prices ticketed up 0.6 percent in July from July 2009 in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday. That compares with an increase of 3.2 percent nationwide. What it means: Federal tax credits boosted sales – and as a result, prices- in the first half of the year. The July numbers reflect that stimulus, because they’re based on a three month moving average and include sales that closed in May and June. With the effects of the tax break fading away, analysts say the real test of the housing market’s strength will come this fall. Prices nationwide are back to levels of late 2003, while in the region, prices have returned to the levels of mid-2004. What’s happening locally: In Bergen County, prices of single-family homes rose 10.9 percent to a median $499,000, while the number of sales dropped 25 percent, as the tax credit wound down. In Passaic County, prices rose 6.4 percent, to a median $302, 828, while the number of sales plummeted by 46 percent. Case-Shiller does not break out data by county; these numbers are from the New Jersey and Garden State multiple listing services. What they’re saying: • “Anyone looking for home prices to return to the lofty levels of 2005-2006 might be disappointed. Stable prices seem more likely. Housing starts, sales and inventory data reported for August do not show signs of a robust market, and foreclosures continue.” - David Blitzer, head of the index committee at Standard and Poor’s • “Employment remains weak, and after-tax incomes are flat. My expectation is that home prices will remain relatively flat through the first half of 2011. It’s going to be a subdued market, with no feeling of energy or enthusiasm.” – Patrick O’Keefe, economist with J.H. Cohn, Roseland • “Volume may still be low, but I think price drops have stopped. Confidence is slowly rebounding, so there are more transactions at the higher end of the market, which of course brings median price figures up.” – Nelson Chen, the Chen Agency, Fort Lee • “Weak demand, combined with a massive housing glut and a high foreclosure rate, will translate into house prices declining about 6 to 8 percent over the next year.” – Patrick Newport, economist, HIS Global Insight